Economy

GDP growth has been inconsistent over the years. What is the explanation?

  • Author: Lamin L. Dibba, Principal Statistician
  • Published: October 2, 2017 4:37 pm

The Gambia's GDP experienced a negative growth rate (-0.9%) in 2005 but had since picked up and been positive until 2011 when it contracted again mainly due to agricultural failure.

These fluctuations have been driven by the main sectors of agriculture, industry and services. Agriculture sector has experience a negative growth rate for three years in a row between 2005 and 2007. In 2008, the sector improved and grew at a rate of 26.0% but immediately contracted over the following three years, registering a negative growth rate of -24.2%. Between 2014 and 2015, the agriculture sector has grown by 10.9 percentage compared to the services sector whose growth rate contracted by 2.3 percentage points.

Within the agriculture sector, the main contributors to the GDP are crops, livestock, forestry and fishing. The growth rate of crops in 2011 was -40.4%, accounting for a contribution of 12.0%, compared to the other three all of which had growth rates of at least 3.4% with corresponding contributions of 9.0%, 0.5% and 2.0%.
 
Industry on the other hand, has been relatively more stable but not without fluctuations. In 2005, the growth rate of the Industry sector was 2.3% which fell down to -0.9% in 2007, picking later with a growth rate of 2.8% the following year and then down again to 1.3% in 2009. The fluctuations, though with positive growth rates, have since continued up to 2015 when the sector had a 5.5 percentage point increase in growth rate from 2.7% in 2014 to 8.2% in 2015.

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